European jet fuel reserves face critical depletion

Europe's aviation sector faces a precarious situation as commercial jet fuel stocks in parts of the continent dwindle rapidly. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Europe currently holds roughly six weeks of jet fuel supplies under normal demand conditions. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned on 16 April 2026 that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, flight cancellations could begin "soon".

This looming shortage, driven primarily by the ongoing conflict involving Iran and the resulting disruption of Middle Eastern oil and refined product flows, raises serious concerns about disruptions to air travel, cargo operations, supply chains, and broader economic stability - particularly ahead of the peak summer travel season.

Factors contributing to the shortage

The current jet fuel crisis stems from multiple overlapping factors. Europe has experienced a long-term decline in domestic refining capacity due to refinery closures, stricter environmental regulations, and shifts toward lower-carbon fuels. At the same time, demand for air travel has recovered strongly since the easing of pandemic restrictions.

However, the immediate and most severe trigger is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalation of the Iran conflict in early 2026. Prior to the disruption, the Middle East accounted for approximately 75% of Europe's net imports of jet fuel (kerosene). The blockade has halted tanker traffic, creating a major supply gap that alternative sources (primarily from the United States and other regions) have only partially offset so far-estimates suggest replacement at 50-75% of lost volumes.

The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to add uncertainty to global energy markets and supply routes, but it is no longer the dominant factor in the jet fuel shortage compared to the Hormuz crisis. Many European refineries are already operating at or near maximum capacity for jet fuel production, limiting further short-term increases in output.

Potential impacts on aviation

The aviation industry would bear the brunt of any sustained shortage. Major carriers, including Ryanair, have already warned that up to 10-25% of their jet fuel supply for May and June 2026 could be at risk if shipments do not resume. Ryanair's CEO Michael O'Leary stated that fuel suppliers can currently guarantee deliveries only through most of May, after which disruptions at certain airports cannot be ruled out.

Airlines may respond with flight cancellations or reductions (especially on less profitable routes), schedule adjustments, higher operating costs, and increased ticket prices. Cargo operations could also face delays, affecting time-sensitive supply chains for perishables, pharmaceuticals, and high-value goods. Some airports, particularly in Italy and other southern European hubs, have already begun implementing temporary fuel rationing or volume limits on refuelling.

If jet fuel stocks in the OECD Europe region fall below the critical threshold of around 23 days of demand cover (normal levels have stayed above 29 days since 2020), physical shortages and “demand destruction” could emerge at selected airports.

Broader economic repercussions

The effects would extend well beyond aviation. Reduced air connectivity could harm tourism and hospitality sectors - critical for many European economies - especially during the summer holiday peak. Disruptions in air cargo might lead to shortages of certain goods, delays in international trade, and upward pressure on consumer prices.

IEA chief Fatih Birol has described the wider situation as potentially “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” with risks of higher inflation, slower economic growth, and broader energy price spikes affecting not only jet fuel but also gasoline, diesel, and electricity. The timing is particularly unfortunate, as it coincides with the beginning of the high-demand summer travel period.

Strategic reserves and policy responses

Europe maintains strategic petroleum reserves (typically covering at least 90 days of oil consumption in EU member states), but these are primarily crude oil and do not directly equate to ready jet fuel stocks. Commercial jet fuel inventories are held separately by airlines, airports, and fuel suppliers and are generally measured in weeks rather than months.

Governments and the European Commission are actively exploring responses, including:

• Maximising output from existing European refineries;
• Accelerating imports from alternative sources (e.g., the US);
• Coordinating fuel sharing or joint purchasing among member states;
• Mapping and potentially reallocating fuel stocks across the continent.

Airlines for Europe (A4E) and Airports Council International Europe have urged the EU to implement emergency measures such as joint kerosene procurement, temporary adjustments to emissions trading rules, and monitoring of fuel availability. The European Commission has stated there is currently “no evidence of immediate fuel shortages” but acknowledges risks “in the near future” and is holding weekly coordination meetings

The effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain and will depend heavily on how quickly the Hormuz situation is resolved and how successfully alternative supplies can be scaled up.

Geopolitical risks

Europe's high reliance on imported energy - particularly refined products routed through vulnerable chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz - highlights structural vulnerabilities in its energy security. Political instability, trade disputes, or armed conflicts in supplier regions can rapidly translate into domestic disruptions.

Long-term mitigation requires accelerating diversification of energy sources, increasing domestic refining flexibility where feasible, scaling up Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production, and strengthening international partnerships with reliable suppliers. The current crisis underscores the need for greater strategic stockpiling specifically tailored to jet fuel and improved crisis-response mechanisms at the EU level.

Conclusion

While the situation is serious and warrants urgent action, the outcome is not yet inevitable. A swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or successful large-scale rerouting of supplies could significantly ease pressures. Conversely, a prolonged blockade risks cascading effects across European aviation and the wider economy. The coming weeks will be critical in determining the scale of any disruptions.