Despite reaching an all-time high, the current record median U.S. home-sale price of $396,500, recorded during the four weeks ending June 15, 2025, reflects significant shifts in market dynamics. This price point stands approximately $26,000, or a 6% discount, below the median asking price of $422,238. This represents a notable reversal from the seller-dominated conditions of 2021-2022, when sale prices frequently exceeded listing prices. The deceleration in price growth, which has fallen from 5% at the year's beginning to just 1% currently, indicates a market where the supply of sellers is now outstripping the number of active buyers.
The broader housing landscape presents a mixed picture. While the median existing home price hit $402,300 in Q1 2025, new home prices have seen a decline for eight consecutive quarters, settling at a median of $416,900 in Q1 2025. This narrows the price gap between new and existing homes to just $14,600, a stark contrast to the historical average of $66,000 observed during the 2010s. This convergence underscores increasing inventory and relatively subdued buyer demand.
Buyer-Seller Market Power Shift
The U.S. housing market in 2025 has undergone a substantial shift, tilting the balance of power distinctly towards buyers for the first time since the pre-pandemic era. Currently, an estimated 1.9 million sellers are competing against only 1.5 million buyers, a 33.7% imbalance that marks the largest gap in records extending back to 2013. This dramatic change is evident in several key metrics: only 28% of homes are now selling above their asking price, a significant drop from the 53% observed during the market's peak in 2022, and pending home sales have decreased by 1.1% year-over-year.
This market rebalancing is primarily driven by persistently high mortgage rates, hovering around 6.5-7%, which have made monthly payments unaffordable for many prospective buyers, thereby reducing demand. Concurrently, housing inventory has surged to levels not seen since March 2020, leading to a surplus of over 500,000 homes. This trend is particularly pronounced in Florida markets like Miami, West Palm Beach, and Fort Lauderdale, where sellers outnumber buyers by nearly 200%. As Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan commented, "The balance of power in the U.S. housing market has shifted toward buyers, but a lot of sellers have yet to see or accept the writing on the wall." Redfin anticipates this power shift to continue, forecasting a 1% year-over-year price decline by the close of 2025.
6% List-to-Sale Price Discount
The current 6% discount between listing and sale prices notably mirrors the traditional real estate commission rate that has long characterized the industry. Historically, the standard commission was 6% of the sale price, typically split between the listing and buyer's agents. However, this rate is now declining nationally, with the average commission standing at 5.44% nationwide and as low as 5.18% in highly competitive markets such as California. This parallel between the commission rate and the list-to-sale price gap highlights the evolving market dynamics.
Calculating this discount is straightforward using the list-to-sale price ratio formula: . With the current median asking price at $422,238 and the median sale price at $396,500, the ratio is approximately 94%. This indicates that buyers are successfully negotiating substantial price reductions. This buyer's advantage sharply contrasts with the seller's market of recent years, where homes frequently sold above asking price, resulting in ratios exceeding 100%. As lower-commission options become more widespread, with some brokerages offering listing fees as low as 1.5%, both commission structures and price negotiations continue to adapt in this increasingly buyer-favorable market.
