The latest ADP private-sector payroll report, released on July 2, 2025, revealed a notable decrease of 33,000 jobs in June, catching economists off guard. This figure starkly contrasts with the expectations of Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal-surveyed economists, who had projected an increase of 100,000 payrolls. This unexpected downturn follows a modest gain of 29,000 jobs reported in May.
A closer look at the data indicates job losses primarily concentrated in the financial, professional services, education, and healthcare sectors. Conversely, the manufacturing, leisure, and hospitality industries demonstrated resilience, adding employees during the same period. Despite the overall decline in employment, wage growth showed a marginal decrease, with year-over-year pay increases standing at 4.4%, a slight dip from May's figures.
Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, commented on the findings, stating, "Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month." She further emphasized, "Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth."
This private-sector data provides a contrasting picture to the recently released May job openings report, which unexpectedly surged to 7.8 million. All eyes are now on tomorrow's official U.S. employment numbers, which are anticipated to show the economy added approximately 110,000 jobs in June, a figure still below May's levels.
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, weighed in on the implications of the ADP report, noting, "The ADP report increased the odds of a downside surprise in Thursday’s nonfarm payroll release." This sentiment underscores the heightened anticipation and potential for further market reactions following the impending government data.
